The U.S. dollar held near 16-week highs on a broadly soft Japanese yen on Thursday, but still looked to end a volatile year with a modest loss against a basket of major currencies.
By Wayne Cole
Trade was extremely light with Tokyo on holiday and many banks on skeleton staff ahead of the New Year holidays. The dollar was firm at 92.41 yen, after hitting a high around 92.77 overnight, and shy of resistance at 93.00/93.20.
The yen was soft across the board, partly as a yield play and partly on concerns over Japan's stretched fiscal position. The New Zealand dollar continued to attract risk seekers, extending its rally against the yen for a fourth session and driving the cross to 67.16 yen, its highest since end-October.
The dollar was up 7 percent versus the yen for December, on track for its best monthly performance since February. For 2009, the greenback was up 2.2 percent against the Japanese currency.
The euro was idling at $1.4360, having seesawed between $1.4458 and $1.4271 so far this week. The single currency was on track for a drop of 4.5 percent for the month, but is still up 2.5 percent for the year.
That gain pales compared to the Australian and New Zealand dollars, which are easily the best performers among the major currencies, with increases of 26 and 24 percent respectively.
Both currencies were hit very hard by the global credit crunch in 2008 but recovered smartly this year when it became clear the world was not heading for depression and Asia outperformed all expectations, keeping commodity prices up.
The ICE Futures' U.S. dollar index was lower at 77.77 on Thursday to be up 4 percent on the month, on pace for its best monthly gain since February. For 2009, however, the dollar index was down 4 percent.
PONDERING PAYROLLS
Traders remain unsure whether the dollar's rally this month is just a year-end phenomena or the start of a longer trend. Next week's U.S. payrolls data may decide the issue.
When the November numbers showed a surprisingly small drop of 11,000, it fuelled talk the Federal Reserve might start to tighten earlier than first thought and set the dollar on a month-long rally. Another improvement could reinforce that trend. Median forecasts are for a modest drop of 20,000 in jobs in December, though some go as high as a 50,000 increase.
"It's going to be a hugely important number," said a trader at an Australian bank in Sydney. "Anything above forecast could see the euro finally break down through $1.4200 towards $1.4000."
"A weak result would be a real dampener after the run of upbeat figures we've seen. The market would have to rethink the Fed timing again, and that could see the euro back up at $1.4700."
There was a promising signal on Wednesday when the Chicago PMI jumped to 60.0, perhaps auguring well for the national Institute for Supply Management (ISM) survey next week.
Overall, three regional surveys from Philadelphia, Texas and Chicago showed a pick up, while another three from New York, Richmond and Kansas City fell back.
That left analysts looking for only a slight increase in the ISM to 54.0 in December, from 53.6 the previous month.
(Additional reporting by Vidya Ranganathan; Editing by Jonathan Standing and Kazunori Takada)
SYDNEY/SINGAPORE (Reuters)